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These 5 States Face Highest Risk for Wildfire Damages

Properties in California, Florida, Texas, Colorado and New Mexico face the highest risk for wildfire damages in 2022, according to a recent report from CoreLogic.

In its Wildfire Report for 2022, the property data, information and analytics provider examined property-related wildfire risk across 15 Western U.S. states and Florida. Property data was analyzed alongside reconstruction resource availability, temporary housing capacity for displaced individuals, and community economic recovery potential in the fire-prone states.

“Consuming thousands of homes in the U.S. every year, wildfires present a real and present threat to our families and communities,” said Tom Larsen, senior director of insurance solutions at CoreLogic. “Mitigating this risk will require commitment from homeowners, first responders, insurers and regulators. A first step in achieving the resilient communities we seek is to quantify what is at risk.”

High-risk States
With the highest number of homes in the Western U.S. and an environment particularly prone to fires, California topped the list of states most vulnerable to property damage. Wildfire data from CoreLogic shows nearly 1.3 million single-family residences exposed to wildfire risk.

In the past five years, California experienced many destructive wildfires. Among these were the Camp Fire that destroyed 18,804 structures in Butte County in 2018, the Tubbs Fire that affected 5,636 structures in Napa and Sonoma in 2017, and the North Complex wildfire that destroyed 2,352 structures in Butte, Plumas and Yuba in 2020, according to CalFire.

CoreLogic identified Florida as the second state that is most at risk for wildfire damages, with 814,499 single-family residences at risk, followed by Texas, with 474,560 residences at wildfire risk.

With 319,799 residences vulnerable to wildfire damage, Colorado ranked fourth on CoreLogic’s list. The research identified El Paso County, the state’s most populous county and home to Colorado Springs, as one area with a particularly high risk of property damage from wildfires. CoreLogic counted 39,000 properties vulnerable to wildfire damage.

“This is especially dangerous when considering that the county was home to around 730,000 people in 2020, meaning a significant wildfire event could impact a very large proportion of the population,” said CoreLogic in its report.

In Colorado, CoreLogic researchers point to the decreasing water levels in the Colorado River and Lake Mead, as well as the declines in snow packs, as examples of “climatological influences that have contributed to an increase in fire season length by an average of three months and a 1,500% increase in area burned by large wildfires in U.S. forests.”

New Mexico is the fifth riskiest housing market for wildfire damages, with 120,428 properties at risk. Santa Fe County, home to an estimated 155,000 people in 2020, has nearly 34,000 properties at risk of wildfire damage. According to the CoreLogic report, “This is why it is important to evaluate not only the overall number of homes at risk but also the proportion of a local population that will be impacted. This ratio underscores the magnitude of population displacement assistance, reconstruction resources, and individual and community economic recovery that could be required in the event of a significant wildfire event.”

Exacerbating Factors
Wildfires are a known prevalent risk in the Western states, with severity depending on key factors such as drought, ignitions, warm or windy weather, and dried fuels. These factors have been exacerbated by the climate crisis, severely altering the states’ wildfire profiles.

A February 2022 report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and GRID-Arendal predicted global increases of extreme fires of up to 14% by 2030, 30% by the end of 2050 and 50% by the end of the century.

Worsening the problem is the shortage of firefighters. As record-setting wildfires burn across the country, the government is grappling with a firefighter staffing crisis. The U.S. Forest Service began the summer of 2022 with about 1,200 unfilled firefighter jobs in California—about 25% fewer firefighters than projected.

In addition to low wages, firefighters face extreme fatigue and physical risk, taking a severe toll on their mental health. A CalFire union has called for more staffing and mental support for firefighters.

“With our capacity to fight fires diminished and no end in sight for escalating drought conditions, it is critical for insurers to understand which areas are the most prone to these risks, how the regulatory framework is evolving to address these challenges, and what communities can do to be as resilient as possible,” CoreLogic stated.

Wildfire Insurance Regulations
State officials in California and Colorado have taken action to aid property owners facing wildfire risk and high insurance costs. On Sept. 7, California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara proposed an insurance pricing regulation aimed at recognizing and rewarding the wildfire safety and mitigation initiatives of businesses and homeowners. According to Lara, the regulation submitted to the California Office of Administrative Law is the first in the nation requiring insurers to give premium discounts on residential and commercial coverage who follow new insurance standards announced in February. These include removing vegetation overgrowth, having a fire-resistant roof and other risk reduction measures.

In a statement, Lara said that the proposed regulation “aligns insurance discounts with fire safety actions being expedited by our state emergency leaders and local governments. And, most importantly, it will save lives by helping California become safer from wildfires.”

In Colorado, Governor Jared Polis signed into law House Bill 1111 in June to hasten the payment of insurance claims to Coloradans who lost their homes in a wildfire. The law requires insurers to pay disaster victims at least 65% of their lost home’s covered contents within 30 days and before receiving an inventory. The push for such change came on the heels of the Marshall Fire in December 2021, which destroyed more than 1,000 homes in Boulder County.

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