Experts Predict Slightly Below-Average Hurricane Season in the Atlantic

For 2023, Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers are predicting a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. CSU researchers believe there will be 13 named storms throughout the year. This total sits below the average of 14.4 named storms per year recorded between 1981 and 2020.

Of the predicted 13 named storms, six are expected to become hurricanes. Furthermore, two of those hurricanes have the potential to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 mph or more. CSU researchers’ predictions are based on statistical models that use nearly 40 years of historical hurricane season data and evaluate conditions such as Atlantic Sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures and vertical wind shear levels.

These predictions also highlight the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall, breaking down probabilities by region. Specifically, there is a 44% chance of a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall across the entire coastline of the United States during 2023—a 27% decrease from 2022 predictions. Looking at different coastlines, there is a 22% chance of this type of hurricane striking the East Coast, while there is a 28% probability of such a storm hitting the Gulf Coast.

It’s important to note that these are simply predictions. Individuals should still make it a priority to properly prepare for severe storms, particularly if they live in or own property in hurricane-prone areas. Here are key hurricane preparedness tips to consider:

• Assess specific risks. Individuals should make sure they know their hurricane exposures. The particular location of a home can determine wind and flood hazards.
• Have a plan. Establishing a hurricane response plan and regularly practicing it is vital. This plan should take note of possible evacuation routes and nearby emergency shelters.
• Create a kit. Individuals should also keep a hurricane kit fully stocked with proper supplies. This includes nonperishable food, water, medicine, emergency power sources, a first-aid kit and important documents.
• Make home adjustments. To minimize possible damages, it’s best for individuals to clear their yards of any items that could get blown around during a hurricane, as well as protect their windows and doors by installing storm shutters. Vehicles should also be stored in safe and secure locations.
• Maintain coverage. Lastly, individuals should review their homeowners policies with trusted insurance professionals to ensure sufficient coverage in the event of a hurricane.

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